I know it doesn’t have to do with football, but march madness is coming soon!

We will be posting links for the best online bracket sites, where to print printable brackets, how to track and join and group. And also some of best picks for Tourney…

Here are some trends that might help you pick a winner for the Superbowl!

PITTSBURGH (14 - 4) vs. ARIZONA (12 - 7) - 2/1/2009, 6:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 78-48 ATS (+25.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Sunday, February 1

Super Bowl XLIII
Tampa, FL
TV: NBC
Philadelphia vs. Arizona, 6:20 ET

Pittsburgh:
6-1 ATS off home win
32-16 ATS off game w/ TO margin of +3 or better

Arizona:
8-0 Over off a SU win as a dog
13-5 Over as an underdog
6:20 PM PITTSBURGH vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games when playing Arizona
Pittsburgh is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Obviously, the biggest lock of the month is UF at -3.  (Gator fan…)

Date of the Bow, the spread, and which Bowl it is:
12/30 4:30 ET Nevada -2.5 Maryland
Humanitarian Bowl

12/30 8:00 ET Rice -3 Western Michigan
Texas Bowl

12/30 8:00 ET Oklahoma State -2.5
Oregon Holiday Bowl

12/31 12:00 ET Houston -3.5
Air Force Armed Forces Bowl

12/31 2:00 ET Oregon State -2.5 Pittsburgh
Sun Bowl

12/31 3:30 ET Boston College -3.5 Vanderbilt
Music City Bowl

12/31 6:00 ET Kansas -9 Minnesota
Insight Bowl

12/31 7:30 ET Georgia Tech -4 LSU
Chick-Fil-A Bowl

1/1 11:00 ET Iowa -4 South Carolina
Outback Bowl

1/1 1:00 ET Clemson -2.5 Nebraska
Gator Bowl

1/1 1:00 ET Georgia -7.5 Michigan State
Capital One Citrus Bowl

1/1 5:00 ET USC -9 Penn State
Rose Bowl

1/1 8:15 ET Cincinnati -2.5 Virginia Tech
Orange Bowl

1/2 2:00 ET Texas Tech -4 Mississippi
Cotton Bowl

1/2 5:00 ET East Carolina -3 Kentucky
Liberty Bowl

1/2 8:15 ET Alabama -9.5 Utah
Sugar Bowl

1/3 12:00 ET Connecticut -4.5 Buffalo
International Bowl

1/5 8:15 ET Texas -8 Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl

1/6 8:00 ET Ball State -1.5 Tulsa
GMAC Bowl

1/8 8:15 ET Florida -3 Oklahoma
BCS Championship Game

BCS Championship

Well they day after Thanksgiving, did well yesterday and looking to start a nice weekend off. I will post some info later but here are some picks I am taking today. (I will continue to update this post as the day goes on.

Ohio Pk (Randizzle special)

Bowling Green -1

Eastern Michigan +10 (Big Bookie)

Gotta lovel Thanksgiving Day football. I have been doing a little research and I will really like a big favorite covering day. The Titans and Cowboys should both have an easy afternoon, and Arizona still does not play defense.

My picks:
Tennessee -11.5
Cowboys -12
Eagles -3

For college, we have a rivarly game. I am not sure how Texas is favored by 35.5. I know this year Texas AM is bad, but I think they at least keep it within 4 touchdowns.

My picks:
Texas A&M +35
Under 67

Gobble Gobble

I got an email asking for this, so hopefully some of you guys can use it for direction.

Consensus Selections of All 349 Contestants

ATLANTA (86) - 5 vs. Kansas City (26)
BUFFALO (68) - 9 vs. Oakland (27)
TENNESSEE (57) - 4 1/2 vs. Houston (71)
N Y GIANTS (39) - 13 1/2 vs. Cincinnati (54)
WASHINGTON (61) - 3 vs. Arizona (59)
NEW ENGLAND (31) - 12 1/2 vs. Miami (37)
CHICAGO (86) - 3 vs. Tampa Bay (39)
MINNESOTA (35) - 3 1/2 vs. Carolina (111)
SEATTLE (16) - 9 1/2 vs. St Louis (43)
SAN FRANCISCO (54) - 4 vs. Detroit (30)
DENVER (51) - 5 1/2 vs. New Orleans (60)
PHILADELPHIA (67) - 3 1/2 vs Pittsburgh (45)
INDIANAPOLIS (29) - 5 1/2 vs. Jacksonville (96)
BALTIMORE (59) - 2 vs Cleveland (76)
Dallas (54) - 3 vs GREEN BAY (77)
SAN DIEGO (34) - 9 vs N Y Jets (52)

5 Top Selections Based On Times Selected
————————————————————–
1 - Carolina (111)
2 - Jacksonville (96)
3 (tie) - Atlanta (86)
3 (tie) - Chicago (86)
5 - Green Bay (77)

5 Top Selections Based On Widest Margins
——————————————————————–
1 - Carolina (+ 76)
2 - Jacksonville (+ 67)
3 - Atlanta (+ 60)
4 - Chicago (+ 47)
5 - Buffalo (+ 41)

UPDATE: Just found another site that shows the records for the Hilton content top 5 consensus picks. You can see week 3 above.

Here are the records:
Week 1: 2-3
Week 2: 4-1

Love this guys writes up….  Some great knowledge, don’t be lazy and skim, read them all!

DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH

WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEK’S NFL GAMES

Great to see you back for our weekly look at what Nevada sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about this weekend’s NFL games. This has become a very popular feature, and I appreciate all of you taking time out of your weekend to come visit the website so you can learn more about how to think and bet like a sharp.

There are some common themes in this week’s games. We have several spots with a 3-point favorite…where books are trying as hard as they can NOT to shift off the field goal. That’s such a common number that they’ll get flooded with money the other way even with just a half point move. Should they make that move, and the game lands exactly on three…well then half the bettors win, and the other half pushes. For the books…BIG LOSS! We’re also seeing a few 9-point favorites out there.

I’ve talked a lot about how sportsbooks are trying to stay away from 8 and 8.5 point favorites because of basic strategy teasers that focus on those games. Books are trying to discourage teaser action, either by lifting the vigorish on the option (common in Vegas), or keeping number out of the range (more common offshore).

Some interesting things are happening in those games, and on the rest of the card. So, let’s get started. Comments are presented in rotation order for your convenience.

KANSAS CITY AT ATLANTA: Not much happening of interest here unfortunately. Atlanta is a 5.5 point favorite, and the total has been locked in at 36.5 for awhile now (after opening at 36). The announcement that Tyler Thigpen would get the start did nothing to the line, because the sharps think all the KC quarterbacks are about equally horrible. There’s just no interest in this game right now. I know some old school sharps who automatically go against any bad team that’s a favorite just on principal. That approach tends to wait until the last possible second on the hopes that the public will drive the favorite higher. I do expect some old school money to hit the dog on game day. It certainly won’t be a tidal wave though. Key numbers aren’t involved. This is a game most guys have no interest in.

OAKLAND AT BUFFALO: We come to our first game sitting on the number 9. Buffalo opened at 9 and 37. I’m now seeing 9 and 36.5. It will take a lot of money to move off the number 9 even though it’s not a critical number. Sportsbooks just don’t want to have to deal with Bills -2.5 of -2 in teasers, so it’s not coming down even if a lot of Raiders money comes in. The books would rather be one-sided on Buffalo -9 rather than Oakland +2.5! Sure, the other part of the teaser has to hit too. Some many of those have been winning that the books prefer not to take the risk. A little tick to the Under because Buffalo tends toward lower scoring games. If anything happens with the weather, it will come down more than that.

HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE: Some Houston money came in early on the Texans +6. I’m seeing mostly +4.5 now as I write this. The total has gone up from 37.5 to 38.5 and 39. Interesting moves. I’m hearing that the sharps just don’t trust Tennessee as a favorite. They like them as a dog, or maybe a cheap favorite (as they were in Cincinnati last week). Once the lines get higher, it’s harder for them to get there consistently. I like some of the reasons for the total going up. Kerry Collins is a better quarterback than Vince Young…and the team won’t be playing in 50-mph winds this week! Some totals guys I respect pointed that out. They think they got a sleeper at Over 37.5. Houston had a forced bye last week because of the hurricane. Hard to know how that will effect them. I was a little surprised there was so much fondness for Houston given that situation.

CINCINNATI AT NY GIANTS: It’s amazing how much this line has changed from where it would have been earlier in the season. The Giants were seen by the sharps as a 9-7 or 10-6 type team (many of whom still think last year was a fluke). Cincinnati was supposed to have a shot at the Wildcard if they could get healthy. The Giants would have been favored by more than a field goal, but less than a touchdown if the game was played in mid August or so. Perceptions have changed so much that the line is now -13. Higher in places. Is that the right number? Old school guys are going to take the dog because they take every double digit dog. They’re hoping to see +14 on game day. Some of the younger guys remember how well big favorites did early last season. They’re less likely to get involved either way. I’ve seen Over money come in at 41 and 41.5. If the weather’s nice, it may go higher on game day.

ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON: We come to the first our field goal games. Washington opened at -3. They’re now -3 with -120 vigorish, or -125 in some places. That means the sharps like Washington as a percentage play. But, if the line moved to -3.5, a whole lot of other guys would come in on Arizona with the hook. And, some of the early money might buy back anyway because three is such a common number. You might not think that’s a great strategy because there’s no”middle to shoot at.” Well, three’s are so common that you can make it work, particularly if you had favorable vigorish. Sharps know how to find that. I would be surprised if the line moves off a field goal. It would take a lot of public money over the weekend to cause that. The total’s stayed steady at 42.

MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND: New England joins the NY Giants as the only current double digit favorites. Funny that those were the Super Bowl teams. The line opened at -13, and is now 12.5. I’m hearing mostly Miami votes from the sharps. Some bet right away figuring +13 would be the best they’d see. Others are waiting until game day hoping the line will go up higher. Tough to see the public loading up on New England given that the Patriots haven’t even scored 20 points in a game yet. Hard to cover a -13 like that. But, Miami did look awful last week, so it’s possible. I don’t know of any sharps who like New England at this price. I’m hearing Miami or pass. Nothing happening on the total yet, as it sits at 35.5

TAMPA BAY AT CHICAGO: Chicago opened at -3.5, but came right down to -3. I’m even seeing low vigorish now at the field goal (even money if you lay the -3). The sharps don’t see this Bears team as a good favorite. Early actors were very happy to get the hook. I don’t expect this line to come off the field goal. If the public doesn’t come in strong on the Bears, the sportsbooks will be rooting for Chicago on game day. I should mention here that sportsbooks don’t like dropping a 3 down to 2.5 because that 2.5 moves into the basic strategy teaser window I’ve been telling you about this year and last. The sharps already like Tampa Bay +3. They’d load up quick on teasers where they could move Tampa Bay to +8.5 and cross both the 3 and the 7. The totals sitting at 35 or 35.5. A lot of low numbers this week on the Over/Unders. If the weather is nice everywhere, you may see some game day Over money come in from the totals guys.

CAROLINA AT MINNESOTA: Minnesota in one of those field goal games, but the Vikings are getting hit so hard that the books might have to move the line up to 3.5 anyway. I’ve seen some 3.5’s out there. Laying -3 will cost you anywhere from -120 to -135 depending on the place. There was a generally favorable reaction to the benching of Tavaris Jackson in favor of Gus Frerotte. Why? Because the sharps were all over Minnesota the first two weeks and went 0-2! They just missed both spreads, and spent a lot of time yelling at the quarterback or the play calling in those games. I’m interested to see what happens here. I know some guys who like Carolina hoping to get +3.5 or +4. They know Steve Smith is coming back after a suspension. Might be split money amongst the sharps if the line ever settles in on game day.

ST. LOUIS AT SEATTLE: The sharps made a killing on this field last week, as they bet San Francisco +9, +8.5, +8, +7.5, all the way down to a touchdown. San Francisco won that game outright. You know it had to be a lot of money coming in to fly through that teaser window. Ultimately any Seattle teasers lost anyway…the only basic strategy team not to get there last weekend. There’s a lot less enthusiasm for St. Louis, who has looked absolutely horrible so far. Seattle has a ton of injuries though. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a game day move on the dog again. The San Francisco move happened late last week. The total has come down half a point from the opener. There’s just not much happening yet with the Over/Unders this week. I won’t mention them again unless there’s a move of a point or more to mention.

DETROIT AT SAN FRANCISCO: San Francisco opened as a 5-point favorite. Detroit money has come in pretty heavily, so we’re seeing 4 or 3.5 as I write this. It’s not that everyone thinks the Lions are great. They’ve been stunned at how bad the defense has looked. But, they don’t trust the 49ers as a favorite of this size…particularly with an inexperienced quarterback. Also, the Niners are coming off a divisional win, which might set up a letdown spot. I don’t think the line will go all the way down to a field goal. If it does some middle players would step in on SF. For now, Detroit is the sharp side here. And, critical numbers aren’t yet involved, so it’s a game others could follow along with if they were so inclined.

NEW ORLEANS AT DENVER: Here’s another game with a move over non-critical numbers. But, it’s moving in the other direction. Denver opened at -4 in this spot, and is now up to -5 or -5.5 as I look at the board. The sharps like what they see from the Denver offense this year…and they know that the New Orleans defense is pretty bad. That, and what may be a lingering bias for the AFC in interconference matchups has led to some love for the favorite. Remember that sharps are typically dog players, so this is a serious vote for the Broncos at the lower numbers. Some are talking about the AFC falling back to earth this year, creating more parity between the conferences. Well, that’s true…because INJURIES have hurt the traditional powers. Denver isn’t injured. New Orleans wasn’t an NFC playoff team last year. Might be some thought about the altitude edge in play here too. New Orleans is playing its second straight road game.

PITTSBURGH AT PHILADELPHIA: Another field goal game. The money is coming in on the favorite here as well. So, you have to lay heavy juice to play the Eagles at -3. I’m seeing a 3.5 now. This is similar to the Minnesota game in that the money may be so one-sided that the books have to move off the field goal and risk getting sided. A rock and a hard place from their perspective. This move goes against the AFC/NFC theory of the prior game. I’m hearing that some guys who focus on injuries think Ben Roethlisberger is in worse shape than he’s letting on. Donovan McNabb has looked great so far too. Guys I respect are quietly suggesting that the Eagles may be in the top two of the NFC right now alongside Dallas. We’ll know more about that after watching this game.

JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts opened at -6. Jacksonville got bet early, bringing the line all the way down to +5 and +4.5. If the Jaguars had done anything in the first two weeks, I think they would have been hit hard even at +3. Indianapolis hasn’t looked good at all, except for the fourth quarter at Minnesota. But, Jacksonville doesn’t even have a good quarter in the books! The Jaguars are 0-2, and have as many injury issues as the Colts do. The sharps see the points as a value play given two injury-riddled teams trying to work things out. It’s not an enthusiastic play though because the sharps have all been watching the Jags flounder on TV.

CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE: We have a total that moved a point, so let me talk about that first. This one opened at 39.5, and has come down to 38.5. Sharps definitely want to play Unders in Baltimore games given their quality defense and rookie quarterback. Also, Cleveland’s biggest weakness is seen as its secondary, which won’t be as big a problem against a rookie quarterback. Baltimore opened -1 on the team side. I’m currently seeing -2 as an average of what’s out there. That puts Cleveland in the teaser window. Not many options out there to stick in a teaser with Cleveland! This is why I talked about teasers again in my Wednesday article a few days ago. Fear of teasers is playing a big role in shaping what the lines look like this week.

DALLAS AT GREEN BAY: Another field goal game. Though, this time it’s a road favorite. That’s the first time we’ve seen that this week. All the other field goal teams are hosts. The sharps will go against the public here if there’s a move in either direction. Normally the public bets the favorite…and bets Dallas. So, the most likely scenario is that the sharps come in on Green Bay at favorable rates late Sunday. If the sharps liked Dallas, they would have acted already. We expect a big handle in the sportsbooks on this huge Sunday Night matchup. Everyone’s looking forward to it, and they’ll have all day to bet.

NY JETS AT SAN DIEGO: San Diego opened at -7.5, and jumped right through the teaser window up to -9. You’re going to see a lot of that this year. It’s like 8-point or 8.5-poinit favorites have gone extinct! The Jets haven’t exactly impressed yet this year. But, the public does like Brett Favre. I’m interested to see what the public finally decides about this one on Monday. They normally like laying points with San Diego at home because the Chargers win a lot of blowouts. But, Favre plus this many points will be hard for them to pass up. The sharps are going to play it by ear. They’re more likely to take the points than to lay them…and are hoping the line might inch up a little higher by kickoff.

My buddy Ace-Ace over at TheRx usually has some great winning picks. He didn’t have a good Week 1 but had a strong Week 2. Here are his plays:

$2500.00 -115 #400 Take Washington (-3) over Arizona (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 21)
Last year the Redskins built a 21-6 lead against the Cardinals before holding off a late rally to win by just two points. They were better than Arizona last year and they are better than them right now. Washington has already played the defending Super Bowl champions and a very tricky New Orleans team to get to 1-1, while the Cardinals have inflated value due to their 2-0 mark. However, their two wins came against the lowly Dolphins and 49ers. Arizona has to travel two time zones east and catch an early kickoff, which I think could doom them to another slow start. The ‘Skins have won seven of nine in this series. Kurt Warner has been efficient and has put up strong numbers, but this will be by far the best defense and the best secondary that he has seen this year. Washington is 20-8-1 ATS against a team with a winning record and Jim Zorn’s familiarity with scheming the Cardinals personnel will pay off for the Redskins.

$600.00 -102 #403 Take Tampa Bay (+3) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 21)
The Bears erratic quarterback play will again sink them and I expect at least two turnovers out of Kyle Orton this weekend. The Bears are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and I think they will suffer a bit of a letdown after their crushing loss at Carolina last week. Former Bear Brian Griese is used to going up against this Chicago defense – he did it every day for two years in practice – and I think he’ll exploit that unit.

$2500.00 -107 ‘Under’ 44 St. Louis at Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 21)
St. Louis is just 2-7 against the total in its last nine road games and they simply cannot get out of their own way on offense. Seattle is, literally, bringing in wide receivers off the street to suit up for them and Matt Hasselbeck can only do so much by himself. I actually think that both defenses are better than the numbers indicate and that their inflated Points Against numbers are the result of some garbage time scores and defensive or special teams touchdowns. Both offenses, though, are as bad as they’ve looked and they’ve combined to average just 28 points per game. One of my systems suggests that we have an advantage of 25 points on this line!

$400.00 -107 ‘Under’ 42 Jacksonville at Indianapolis (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 21)
Both offensive lines are undergoing severe attrition and both defensive lines should have a field day. Neither offense has moved the ball efficiently in its first two games, with the Jags averaging just 13.0 points and Indy just 15.5. Both defenses have been sound though, as they two units have combined to give up just 40.5 points per game to start the year. I think that the Jaguars are going to rededicate themselves to the running game in this one, and that usually doesn’t lead to an eruption of points. Both teams are feeling the pinch of slow starts and we expect both coaches to be extra conservative in this key divisional game.

$600.00 -102 #394 Take Buffalo (-9.5) over Oakland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 21)
This one is simply a case of playing the better side on two teams headed in opposite directions. The Raiders have injury issues on offense and plenty of off-field distractions, ranging from their head coach’s shaky job status to off-field arrests. Buffalo is a sparkling 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games and 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games overall. We’ll ride the hot team from Upstate New York.

$600.00 -109 NewYork Jets (+9.5) over San Diego (8:30 p.m. Monday, Sept. 22)
This is simply too many points for a primetime matchup between two relatively even matched teams. The Jets are 8-2 ATS as a Monday Night Football underdog and I think they will be able to move the ball against a suddenly porous Chargers defense. San Diego has lost two heart breakers and now everyone expects an “angry” team to coe back and get a win. Well, the Jets are not a pushover and it’s not as if the Chargers can just “turn it on” and earn a blowout. The bottom line is that they lost two games to two non-playoff teams from last year and they have shown us very little offensively (especially if LT is not 100 percent) that suggests they will run away with this one. The Jets have covered four straight in this series and I think that the Favre Magic will give us the cash on MNF.

—

I would most likely stay away from the Seattle and St. Louis game, either picking a winner or total. These teams are both garbage and you would have a better chance flipping a coin. This game could be called “The Battle of the Bad”

Sorry for the non-posts yesterday and this week during the college games.  I was on the road all day and was not able to get to a computer. I will be going through some sites, email, and stats now and find some good consensus picks!

Can Notre Dame really beat Michigan? A team that struggled with San Deigo state??

I am not saying Michigan is a good squad, but to me I think Notre Dame is garbage.

I took Michigan week 1 and got burnt, took Michigan week 2 first half and lost it be .5, will it be another losing Michigan bet for me?

I hope not, and I don’t see it happening. Michigan needs to come out early and take the crowd out the game, cause we know they will be fired up in South Bend.

Play:
Michigan -1 1/2 through - 2 1/2