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DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH

WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEK’S NFL GAMES

Great to see you back for our weekly look at what Nevada sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about this weekend’s NFL games. This has become a very popular feature, and I appreciate all of you taking time out of your weekend to come visit the website so you can learn more about how to think and bet like a sharp.

There are some common themes in this week’s games. We have several spots with a 3-point favorite…where books are trying as hard as they can NOT to shift off the field goal. That’s such a common number that they’ll get flooded with money the other way even with just a half point move. Should they make that move, and the game lands exactly on three…well then half the bettors win, and the other half pushes. For the books…BIG LOSS! We’re also seeing a few 9-point favorites out there.

I’ve talked a lot about how sportsbooks are trying to stay away from 8 and 8.5 point favorites because of basic strategy teasers that focus on those games. Books are trying to discourage teaser action, either by lifting the vigorish on the option (common in Vegas), or keeping number out of the range (more common offshore).

Some interesting things are happening in those games, and on the rest of the card. So, let’s get started. Comments are presented in rotation order for your convenience.

KANSAS CITY AT ATLANTA: Not much happening of interest here unfortunately. Atlanta is a 5.5 point favorite, and the total has been locked in at 36.5 for awhile now (after opening at 36). The announcement that Tyler Thigpen would get the start did nothing to the line, because the sharps think all the KC quarterbacks are about equally horrible. There’s just no interest in this game right now. I know some old school sharps who automatically go against any bad team that’s a favorite just on principal. That approach tends to wait until the last possible second on the hopes that the public will drive the favorite higher. I do expect some old school money to hit the dog on game day. It certainly won’t be a tidal wave though. Key numbers aren’t involved. This is a game most guys have no interest in.

OAKLAND AT BUFFALO: We come to our first game sitting on the number 9. Buffalo opened at 9 and 37. I’m now seeing 9 and 36.5. It will take a lot of money to move off the number 9 even though it’s not a critical number. Sportsbooks just don’t want to have to deal with Bills -2.5 of -2 in teasers, so it’s not coming down even if a lot of Raiders money comes in. The books would rather be one-sided on Buffalo -9 rather than Oakland +2.5! Sure, the other part of the teaser has to hit too. Some many of those have been winning that the books prefer not to take the risk. A little tick to the Under because Buffalo tends toward lower scoring games. If anything happens with the weather, it will come down more than that.

HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE: Some Houston money came in early on the Texans +6. I’m seeing mostly +4.5 now as I write this. The total has gone up from 37.5 to 38.5 and 39. Interesting moves. I’m hearing that the sharps just don’t trust Tennessee as a favorite. They like them as a dog, or maybe a cheap favorite (as they were in Cincinnati last week). Once the lines get higher, it’s harder for them to get there consistently. I like some of the reasons for the total going up. Kerry Collins is a better quarterback than Vince Young…and the team won’t be playing in 50-mph winds this week! Some totals guys I respect pointed that out. They think they got a sleeper at Over 37.5. Houston had a forced bye last week because of the hurricane. Hard to know how that will effect them. I was a little surprised there was so much fondness for Houston given that situation.

CINCINNATI AT NY GIANTS: It’s amazing how much this line has changed from where it would have been earlier in the season. The Giants were seen by the sharps as a 9-7 or 10-6 type team (many of whom still think last year was a fluke). Cincinnati was supposed to have a shot at the Wildcard if they could get healthy. The Giants would have been favored by more than a field goal, but less than a touchdown if the game was played in mid August or so. Perceptions have changed so much that the line is now -13. Higher in places. Is that the right number? Old school guys are going to take the dog because they take every double digit dog. They’re hoping to see +14 on game day. Some of the younger guys remember how well big favorites did early last season. They’re less likely to get involved either way. I’ve seen Over money come in at 41 and 41.5. If the weather’s nice, it may go higher on game day.

ARIZONA AT WASHINGTON: We come to the first our field goal games. Washington opened at -3. They’re now -3 with -120 vigorish, or -125 in some places. That means the sharps like Washington as a percentage play. But, if the line moved to -3.5, a whole lot of other guys would come in on Arizona with the hook. And, some of the early money might buy back anyway because three is such a common number. You might not think that’s a great strategy because there’s no”middle to shoot at.” Well, three’s are so common that you can make it work, particularly if you had favorable vigorish. Sharps know how to find that. I would be surprised if the line moves off a field goal. It would take a lot of public money over the weekend to cause that. The total’s stayed steady at 42.

MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND: New England joins the NY Giants as the only current double digit favorites. Funny that those were the Super Bowl teams. The line opened at -13, and is now 12.5. I’m hearing mostly Miami votes from the sharps. Some bet right away figuring +13 would be the best they’d see. Others are waiting until game day hoping the line will go up higher. Tough to see the public loading up on New England given that the Patriots haven’t even scored 20 points in a game yet. Hard to cover a -13 like that. But, Miami did look awful last week, so it’s possible. I don’t know of any sharps who like New England at this price. I’m hearing Miami or pass. Nothing happening on the total yet, as it sits at 35.5

TAMPA BAY AT CHICAGO: Chicago opened at -3.5, but came right down to -3. I’m even seeing low vigorish now at the field goal (even money if you lay the -3). The sharps don’t see this Bears team as a good favorite. Early actors were very happy to get the hook. I don’t expect this line to come off the field goal. If the public doesn’t come in strong on the Bears, the sportsbooks will be rooting for Chicago on game day. I should mention here that sportsbooks don’t like dropping a 3 down to 2.5 because that 2.5 moves into the basic strategy teaser window I’ve been telling you about this year and last. The sharps already like Tampa Bay +3. They’d load up quick on teasers where they could move Tampa Bay to +8.5 and cross both the 3 and the 7. The totals sitting at 35 or 35.5. A lot of low numbers this week on the Over/Unders. If the weather is nice everywhere, you may see some game day Over money come in from the totals guys.

CAROLINA AT MINNESOTA: Minnesota in one of those field goal games, but the Vikings are getting hit so hard that the books might have to move the line up to 3.5 anyway. I’ve seen some 3.5’s out there. Laying -3 will cost you anywhere from -120 to -135 depending on the place. There was a generally favorable reaction to the benching of Tavaris Jackson in favor of Gus Frerotte. Why? Because the sharps were all over Minnesota the first two weeks and went 0-2! They just missed both spreads, and spent a lot of time yelling at the quarterback or the play calling in those games. I’m interested to see what happens here. I know some guys who like Carolina hoping to get +3.5 or +4. They know Steve Smith is coming back after a suspension. Might be split money amongst the sharps if the line ever settles in on game day.

ST. LOUIS AT SEATTLE: The sharps made a killing on this field last week, as they bet San Francisco +9, +8.5, +8, +7.5, all the way down to a touchdown. San Francisco won that game outright. You know it had to be a lot of money coming in to fly through that teaser window. Ultimately any Seattle teasers lost anyway…the only basic strategy team not to get there last weekend. There’s a lot less enthusiasm for St. Louis, who has looked absolutely horrible so far. Seattle has a ton of injuries though. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a game day move on the dog again. The San Francisco move happened late last week. The total has come down half a point from the opener. There’s just not much happening yet with the Over/Unders this week. I won’t mention them again unless there’s a move of a point or more to mention.

DETROIT AT SAN FRANCISCO: San Francisco opened as a 5-point favorite. Detroit money has come in pretty heavily, so we’re seeing 4 or 3.5 as I write this. It’s not that everyone thinks the Lions are great. They’ve been stunned at how bad the defense has looked. But, they don’t trust the 49ers as a favorite of this size…particularly with an inexperienced quarterback. Also, the Niners are coming off a divisional win, which might set up a letdown spot. I don’t think the line will go all the way down to a field goal. If it does some middle players would step in on SF. For now, Detroit is the sharp side here. And, critical numbers aren’t yet involved, so it’s a game others could follow along with if they were so inclined.

NEW ORLEANS AT DENVER: Here’s another game with a move over non-critical numbers. But, it’s moving in the other direction. Denver opened at -4 in this spot, and is now up to -5 or -5.5 as I look at the board. The sharps like what they see from the Denver offense this year…and they know that the New Orleans defense is pretty bad. That, and what may be a lingering bias for the AFC in interconference matchups has led to some love for the favorite. Remember that sharps are typically dog players, so this is a serious vote for the Broncos at the lower numbers. Some are talking about the AFC falling back to earth this year, creating more parity between the conferences. Well, that’s true…because INJURIES have hurt the traditional powers. Denver isn’t injured. New Orleans wasn’t an NFC playoff team last year. Might be some thought about the altitude edge in play here too. New Orleans is playing its second straight road game.

PITTSBURGH AT PHILADELPHIA: Another field goal game. The money is coming in on the favorite here as well. So, you have to lay heavy juice to play the Eagles at -3. I’m seeing a 3.5 now. This is similar to the Minnesota game in that the money may be so one-sided that the books have to move off the field goal and risk getting sided. A rock and a hard place from their perspective. This move goes against the AFC/NFC theory of the prior game. I’m hearing that some guys who focus on injuries think Ben Roethlisberger is in worse shape than he’s letting on. Donovan McNabb has looked great so far too. Guys I respect are quietly suggesting that the Eagles may be in the top two of the NFC right now alongside Dallas. We’ll know more about that after watching this game.

JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts opened at -6. Jacksonville got bet early, bringing the line all the way down to +5 and +4.5. If the Jaguars had done anything in the first two weeks, I think they would have been hit hard even at +3. Indianapolis hasn’t looked good at all, except for the fourth quarter at Minnesota. But, Jacksonville doesn’t even have a good quarter in the books! The Jaguars are 0-2, and have as many injury issues as the Colts do. The sharps see the points as a value play given two injury-riddled teams trying to work things out. It’s not an enthusiastic play though because the sharps have all been watching the Jags flounder on TV.

CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE: We have a total that moved a point, so let me talk about that first. This one opened at 39.5, and has come down to 38.5. Sharps definitely want to play Unders in Baltimore games given their quality defense and rookie quarterback. Also, Cleveland’s biggest weakness is seen as its secondary, which won’t be as big a problem against a rookie quarterback. Baltimore opened -1 on the team side. I’m currently seeing -2 as an average of what’s out there. That puts Cleveland in the teaser window. Not many options out there to stick in a teaser with Cleveland! This is why I talked about teasers again in my Wednesday article a few days ago. Fear of teasers is playing a big role in shaping what the lines look like this week.

DALLAS AT GREEN BAY: Another field goal game. Though, this time it’s a road favorite. That’s the first time we’ve seen that this week. All the other field goal teams are hosts. The sharps will go against the public here if there’s a move in either direction. Normally the public bets the favorite…and bets Dallas. So, the most likely scenario is that the sharps come in on Green Bay at favorable rates late Sunday. If the sharps liked Dallas, they would have acted already. We expect a big handle in the sportsbooks on this huge Sunday Night matchup. Everyone’s looking forward to it, and they’ll have all day to bet.

NY JETS AT SAN DIEGO: San Diego opened at -7.5, and jumped right through the teaser window up to -9. You’re going to see a lot of that this year. It’s like 8-point or 8.5-poinit favorites have gone extinct! The Jets haven’t exactly impressed yet this year. But, the public does like Brett Favre. I’m interested to see what the public finally decides about this one on Monday. They normally like laying points with San Diego at home because the Chargers win a lot of blowouts. But, Favre plus this many points will be hard for them to pass up. The sharps are going to play it by ear. They’re more likely to take the points than to lay them…and are hoping the line might inch up a little higher by kickoff.